Portfolio news: averaged by Novatek;


Recently, # dividends came from # Novatek (11.82 rubles / share), # Nlmk (4.75 rubles / share), # mts (8.93 rubles / share) and # Tatneft (9.94 rubles / share).

I thought, and bought additional shares of Novatek. I wanted to take this asset at a price below 1,000 rubles. for averaging, and then just a correction in the markets happened and the price went to the area of 950 rubles.

On the correction, Novatek sank by 15% of the purchase price, after averaging (new purchase), the drawdown decreased to about 8%, and then the market began to grow and now the shares are in a slight plus of about 2%.

However, its share in the share capital after the March sale did not increase much from this — from 0 to 0.0055%.

In December, the board of directors will consider an increase in dividends.

I started buying this company for a long time, and as far as possible I will increase my share in the portfolio. In addition to the fact that I see Novatek as much more interesting than the troubled and conflicted Gazprom, the company has excellent indicators (one EBITDA margin is 77%).

In addition, this is one of the rare stories of both growth and value, as the company continues to develop and expand through projects. That is, the bet can be made both on the growth in the value of the paper as the projects are implemented, and on the dividend yield.

The portfolio structure at the moment is as follows:

First, I am very happy with the listing

Secondly, I bought Petropavlovsk (more on this below in the gold section).

Thirdly, I no longer believe in tales of economic recovery, and therefore I plan to increase the share in

Here it must be clarified that the main economic indicators (GDP of the United States and countries, unemployment and consumption) can return to their previous indicators without strict quarantines from governments.

To do this, it is enough to give people the right to move freely and go about their business.

But along the way, more serious problems have ripened, which are not simply not solved with the help of money (printing press and economic stimulus measures), but are getting worse thanks to such monetary policy (about $ 10 trillion per year). First of all, I’m talking about inflation.

If economic indicators return to their previous values (before the story with the virus), and inflation starts to accelerate, this will be a real lockdown for business.

So, no matter how strange it may sound and look, I expect the value of gold to remain within the range of $ 1,850-2,000 (without hard shocks) for a very long period of time. Hence follows the decision to purchase Petropavlovsk and increase Polymetal’s share in the portfolio.

Gold can fall dramatically only in one case — if the majority of investors believe in a full economic recovery and sell the precious metal to be re-bought in shares.

Petropavlovsk, after listing on the Moscow Stock Exchange, collapsed from 40 rubles. per share up to 29r. — quite a normal situation for the Russian stock market. The overwhelming majority of listings on the MICEX begin with a drop, as the assets find no support in demand.
Even at a price of 29 rubles, this security is a bit expensive (in terms of multiples), but there is a possibility of at least a return to 40 rubles. for the paper. In addition, news is expected on the return to dividend payments, which may also serve as a driver for growth.

For gold, the logic is simple. Gold miners, in principle, do not need further growth in the value of gold in order to grow — it is enough for the precious metal to remain above $ 1,850-1900.

And why the achieved value of gold may no longer roll back to the pre-crisis values — I wrote above. A complete analysis of the situation did

RusAgro benefits from the pandemic and crisis, which will be reflected in dividends. The company has a fair market value as few people talk about it, and yet it has a chance of popularity.

The story about Surgutneftegaz prefs is the same — the minimum projected dividends of 20% (less is unlikely, more is possible) due to the revaluation of the company’s currency fund. I perceive this asset from the point of view of a bank deposit — buy and forget for half a year, before dividends.

I will not rewrite my investment strategy again — you can read about this in another article at the link below. I’ll tell you only about the corrections / improvements.

How many times I find myself finding it harder and harder to acquire overheated and overvalued assets. When you know the fair value, paying more doesn’t raise the hand.

Therefore, in the future, I will accumulate cash on a brokerage account and monthly redeem (average) assets on drawdowns, and also wait for a correction in those assets that are now overheated.

By studying news and expert opinions at the moment, I try to separate facts from opinions. Sometimes, this is very difficult to do, because facts can be presented in different ways, the way someone needs it.

And I understand that my investment actions sometimes run counter to the market, but I try to look at the global situation «here and now».

The market is illogical now. Capital rolls across the market (from one asset to another) like waves at sea in a storm. The influx of new investors is blowing bubbles like Tesla and Nikola.

In other words, I am not sure that I am right in everything that I predict. But if I say something, then I do it myself (or have already done it). That is, I am responsible for my words with my own capital.

But I will not tire of reminding you that I have my own strategy and I follow it (for more details, see the article at the link below).

Therefore, in the best spirit of the market,

In general, you get the idea. There are a lot of interesting things on the channel;)

Thank you for reading. You like if the note and thoughts were helpful.

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